Monthly Archives: October 2010

Time for an Apple camera?

Hardware

Needed: A proper UI.

With Apple stock opening over $300 per share for the first time this morning and Apple Computer poised to report its first quarter with sales in excess of $20bn on October 18, 2pm PDT, fans of the stock are asking “What’s next?”

Well, Apple mobile devices (iPhone, Touch, iPod, iPad) now account for a stunning 60% of revenues and growing. They were zero four years ago. The iPad will sell anything between 25 and 50 million units next year, generating $26 billion or more in revenues and some $8.25 in EPS and adding maybe $80 to the stock price. With competitors all over the place with multiple operating systems and few developers writing applications for any but iOS, the iPad has a solid 3-5 year lead on the competition, just like the original iPhone. Cannibalization of traditional computer sales is mainly hurting PCs and netbooks, as MacBook sales continue growing. The newest iPhone is selling like hot cakes, global distribution grows apace and the iPod refuses to die , morphing into the Touch. So it’s not like there isn’t a lot of gas left in the tank for existing products to continue to sell nicely for a while.

Many commentators think Apple should try to get serious about home entertainment with an Apple television but I doubt that will work. The problem with an integrated TV/computer is that you have one part with a ten year life, the LCD display, and another with a 2 year life, the computer hardware. So the consumer will be confronted with the issue of recycling a perfectly fine LCD display just because the computer part is obsolete. That does not solve. Plus dealing with multiple TV and movie studios to get distribution rights to their content is a Sisyphean task.

But how about an Apple camera?


The Apple Quicktake 200 – 1997

Apple marketed three Quicktake models in the 1990s, each 640×480 pixels (0.3 megapixels!) priced at $600-750. They were not successful, the first two being a rebranded Kodak made by Chinon in Japan, serial makers of contract garbage then and now; the last, shown above, was made by Fuji. Steve Jobs rightly discontinued this “me too” product shortly after his return to Apple.

Rebranding is not a formula for success. It’s merely a formula for low sales and even lower margins.

Apple has been using optics in its computers for a long time. There was the excellent 2003 iSight webcam which clipped to your iMac which I happily used for years with my iMac G4 and G5; after that iMacs and MacBooks came with built-in webcams, none quite as sharp as the original clip on which now sells for a small fortune in the used market.


Apple iSight webcam.

The iSight had autofocus and exposure and a fast, sharp lens.

Finally, Apple has made huge strides in cell phone camera design, with the 5mp variant in the latest iPhone4 eschewing pixels for image quality and adding automated HDR in the process. I am still on the iPhone 3G so cannot comment on the quality firsthand, but user reports suggest it’s excellent for that format.

And if anyone knows User Interface design, it’s most certainly not the goons at Microsoft.

So Apple could make a crackerjack separate camera in a sector replete with poor design and near total absence of correct thinking about user interface design. Panasonic and Olympus are among the worst here, with endless menus cluelessly named. What is called for is a simple mechanical analog interface for a few of the most commonly used functions and a voice activated or touchscreen approach for everything else which is rarely used. The Panasonic G2 makes a stab at touch controls, but it does nothing to change the poor menu structure of the G1.

Lenses? Hardly an issue. Any of Schneider, Fuji, Cosina, Sony and many others will be more than pleased to come up with a cool design for what is now the world’s second largest company, just behind ExxonMobil. CPU? The customized ARM A4 used in the iPad will blow anything else out there out of the water.

Disclosure: Long AAPL and AAPL call options.

The iPad six months later

iPad

If you don’t have one you are getting left behind.

Just over 6 months ago I was amongst the first in line with our son to buy an iPad, a fairly unusual ‘early adopter’ stance for one who prefers to let others do the testing for him and then buys Mark II of a gadget. You know, the one that works properly.

Well, since that great day three things have happened. Our son is one inch taller, I have bought five more iPads as gifts for friends and a piece of junk named ‘Kindle’ has come and gone. No, none of the gift recipients have returned their iPads.

And, not coincidentally, AAPL stock has risen over 20%.

Mobile devices (iPad, iPhone, iPod) now account for nearly 60% of Apple’s revenues and, depending whom you believe, somewhere between 8 and 14 million iPads will be sold in the last nine months of 2010.

But the grumblers continue to wait for something better, denying the time value of information. It doesn’t run Flash, it doesn’t have an SDHC card slot, it’s clunky for file sharing with your desktop, it doesn’t multitask, it doesn’t print, there’s no matte screen version and on and on. Meanwhile I have found the iPad has become my dominant reading tool, be it blogs, news, books, art, photography, PDF files or music. And our son loves it for gaming!

While what I really want is a 21″ iPad for art and picture books, it seems that the next variation will be a 7″ model with greater portability which I expect to start at $299 compared to $499 for the original.

The next iPad.

That one will be fine for books and snaps but of less interest to photographers who generally prefer a larger screen.

The early adoption decision was easy. After three years with the iPhone there was no learning curve, and the touch screen technology is identical. The same features that make the iPhone so successful – instant on, bog reliable OS, high manufacturing quality, reasonable price – were all expected in the iPad and I was not disappointed. Plus, unlike a MacBook or any other laptop or netbook, it runs very cool, a pleasant and unexpected bonus. Finally, the eleven hour battery life is a game changer.

I have placed more stock trades and read more research reports using the iPad than I can recall. Now instead of catching the market open bleary eyed in the office, I simply prop a pillow under my head and have at it in bed, if you get my drift. Waking at 3 am to check the far east markets is now a process with a very low resistance factor, as I do not have to go anywhere to do it.

So, time is money and information is power. If you are still waiting for something better, you have just lost 6 months – of time, money and power – for what is a trivial outlay. What’s your problem? Heck, your local Target now has them and even the maker of that execrable piece of junk, the Kindle, will sell you one sales tax free.

And next year when I get the second version I’ll hack the original to run Flash and spray the screen with matte enamel, making for a complete experience.

Disclosure: I own more AAPL stock than you do.

Greed as Art

Photographs

A number-blind nation’s output.

One of the most obvious ways to economic success is to do the difficult thing, meaning you study math, or chemistry, or engineering at school. Not English or Poetry. While the latter are doubtless noble aspirations their result is that all you are qualified for is to turn out …. more English and Poetry scholars. Neither avocation creates wealth for you or the nation.

And capitalist society is expert at avoiding doing the ‘difficult’ thing, given its desire for instant and easy gratification. Be it passive activities like TV or watching sports, vicariously living the experiences of a highly paid athlete, we are simply being passive consumers, creating no wealth in the process. And the alternatives to creating wealth are easily seen in Africa or North Korea, like it or not.

In Western societies the passivity of populations and their general unwillingness to study difficult subjects is seen daily in macro economics. (In Asia, by contrast, the pure and applied sciences are revered). Had consumers learned one iota of math or finance, the housing bust would never have happened. Predatory lenders would have been short of suckers to buy their criminal products. Liar loans would have not seen the light of day and borrowers would have looked at prospective cash flows in the light of rational expectations for income and expense and made objective, informed decisions as to whether a home and loan were affordable.

So continuing yesterday’s aerial theme, here’s a truly exceptional image from Google (presumably taken by US taxpayer-owned satellites, which makes it especially poignant) of the greed that results from number blindness. It’s of a halted residential real estate development off the I75 freeway in Florida on that state’s central western coast – you know the once pristine one now covered with BP’s crude oil. No great photographer was involved, just a passive drone designed and launched by the same people we denigrate as nerds and mad scientists, which we so sorely lack. They make them in copious numbers in India and China but, being the smart people we are, we refuse them entry. It wouldn’t do to actually enhance the gene pool now, would it?

Take a careful look. This development just stopped – the plots at the upper right have pads but no homes. The others, I would bet, are empty or in foreclosure.

Greed as Art. Stalled real estate development in Florida from Google.

Jason Hawkes

Photographers

An aerial photographer.

Consulting my rational side, I can only conclude that nearly all air flight is a waste of time and resources. One third involves visiting Aunt Minnie in Florida when she could be simply dialed up on a webcam. Another third involves boondoggles passing as conferences where we try to create team spririt or some such nonsense when we should be focusing on teaching individuality. And the remainder is spent on business meetings which would be better conducted at the local video center, saving vast amounts of time and money. But for a world which largely values motion over action, flying is just the ticket.

But there is a very special niche which I exempt from criticism, and that’s aerial photography. Which of us has not pointed his camera at the window when coming in to land for the occasional snap? Though, as with most things, to do this well you have to devote yourself to it and that’s Jason Hawkes’s avocation.


The Empire State Building at night.

While much of this Englishman’s work is done in Europe, he has a new book named New York at Night which amply illustrates the difference between the amateur snapper and the dedicated specialist.

For more, check out his web site. Hawkes uses just two lenses on his full frame Nikons, 14-24mm and 70-200mm zooms, with a gyroscopic stabilizer. While the Kenyon range of stabilizers is expensive, they can also be rented for a reasonable sum.

And while you are perusing his superb images, think also how much better a world without flight would be. No Holiday Inns or Hiltons, no Las Vegas, no 9/11, cheaper gas, less noise, less pollution, fewer traffic jams, more productivity, more time spent with the family instead of being busy being busy, more trains, and on and on.