Fighting the Wuhan virus.

Back at the height of the Cold War the US Government issued nuclear (dis)information films which showed how to protect yourself in the event Ivan dropped the Big One on downtown Oakland. Schoolchildren were advised to hide under their desks, comforted in the knowledge that this is all that was needed to withstand hundreds of megatons of explosive force and fire which, in reality, would leave them as mere brown stains on the concrete foundation of Balls Pond Road High.

That governmental ‘advice’ compares with today’s version which has it that we should not touch our faces and must stockpile hand sanitizer to be rubbed or lathered on every part of our bodies. This is comically instructed to all and sundry by experts who are busy touching their faces as they orate. As they work for the government I would guess they have lots of sanitizer at home. My supermarket is sold out.

Comical? Yes, for the odds that you will wash your hands after every human contact and before touching your potentially infected face are statistically close to zero. And you didn’t forget to wash your face, did you? I don’t recall anyone telling us to do that.

Things have not progressed too far in the intervening 70 years since those nuke avoidance advisories, as the nation now finds itself with a cretinous sociopath in the Oval Office more concerned about his ratings than saving American lives. And tens of thousands of those lives will be sacrificed to this man’s criminality before the Wuhan virus passes, all rapid response task forces crafted so ably by his predecessor having been dismantled in a fit of hatred, racism and mendacity.

So the question becomes how best to mitigate risk when one is in a high risk (aka ‘old’) group? Washing your hands is redundant if you have had no contact with an infected source, most likely another human being. Forgetting to wash your face is even worse. Living in Wuhan is probably not a winner, any more than is living in Italy or South Korea. I should have added Iran but living there was never a good idea under any circumstances. And ingesting powdered pangolin in lieu of Viagra is definitely a no-no.

Looking at the transmission mechanisms for Wuhan virus it’s clear we know little. Yes, airborne transmission through coughs and sneezes is pretty much a certainty, but how about on packages? Some experts say it lasts 9 days, others say not at all. In other words, we are clueless.

That’s not to say that risk mitigation should be written off as a lost cause. Risk mitigation translates to as little contact with humans (and pangolins) as possible and as little contact with surfaces touched by those humans. In that regard, my habit of visiting the supermarket daily – hey, it’s a beautiful motorcycle ride – constitutes a high risk activity. Not just because of all the people there or because the ATM machine is the one I use, but because of the latter day Typhoid Mary.

TM was a 19th century cook who frequently changed jobs, leaving behind typhoid cases and death galore in the homes where she served. An astute detective put two and two together, recreated her travels and eventually tracked her down. The suspicion was that her gall bladder harbored the infection and when she refused to have it removed she was locked up. Those were the days! Mary Mallon (1869-1938), that one woman wrecking crew, became known to one and all as Typhoid Mary.

Now her close equivalent is the check-out cashier at the supermarket. Unlike TM she bears ill will to no one, but whether carrier or transmitter she is an incredibly high risk contact. You stand within 4 feet of this person when checking out, chat amiably and forget that you are well within the transmission range specified by the US Centers for Disease Control – you know, the agency staffed with scientists who have to bow to the cretinous sociopath in the Oval Office. The average time in line with scanners and credit card check-out is 1 minute. That clerk works an eight hour shift which figures to right about 500 contacts in that shift. 500 potential coughers. 500 potential sneezers. 500 potential carriers. She is an unwitting disease transmission center. Exposure to her, decent an egg as she (or he) may be, makes no sense.

So here is the answer:

That delivery person has contact with a lot of people in the supermarket, true. But not with that ultra-high risk cashier.

Once the virus passes I will revert to my daily visits and joyful motorcycle rides, trading virus risk for that posed by Mommy on her cell phone in her SUV. Meanwhile, quarantine rules.

iPhone 11 Pro snap.

Note: For those readers interested in a more statistical approach, the above is nothing more or less than an exercise in ‘social distancing’, well illustrated here using the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic for data, a pandemic which killed 100 million worldwide. The Typhoid Mary related quote is: “Those with mild symptoms (or none at all) may easily pass the virus on to vulnerable people, particularly those who are older or have pre-existing health conditions.”