Monthly Archives: October 2007

Civilisation

A great and erudite teacher.

I had the most extraordinary case of deja vu the other day, having indulged in the DVD set of Kenneth Clark’s Civilisation. I mention this as I have frequently maintained that there is more for photographers to learn from the art of the Renaissance than in any other field of visual rendering. Click on Paintings for more.

The nature of this strange flashback was that, as Lord Clark was extolling the insane abstraction to be found in Giotto’s faces (Giotto died in 1337, so hardly a Johhny-come-lately) I found myself rooting for something on Giorgione and, suddenly, Clark is talking about him. Now I want some Caravaggio and sure enough, up it comes. Then Donatello, Veronese and Michelangelo. What was going on here? My every wish was Clark’s command!

Then it struck me. Civilisation was released by the BBC in 1969, when I was 18 and just getting serious about the Renaissance. Until then I had been fixated for years on the Impressionists, later Cezanne for his nascent cubism and Degas for his perfect sense of line (until Seurat chanced on the scene, that is). The Old was not for me. All those stuffy oils, over framed, in big galleries. Well, the reality is that, unknown to me these 40 years, Lord Clark had been my teacher. So perfect was Clark’s taste, so beautiful his mellifluous use of that most gorgeous of languages, English (it has fallen out of use since) that I sat entranced and overjoyed at this journey of artistic and spiritual discovery.

As a photographer you are interested in images. As a photographer, your education remains incomplete without an appreciation of the Renaissance and there is no better way to gain that than with this series. Sure, Clark doesn’t affect polyester clothing or make any effort to conceal his patrician leanings. On the other hand, he has no cynicism or snobbery in his make up and the whole is simply a delight. I guiltily admit to having put in the first DVD last night and found that I had sat through four episodes before it was time for bed.

I think you may have the same reaction.

Classics

The soul of the machine.

What is it that makes a machine a classic? For that matter, how do you define classic?

Well, it has to have class. I can’t define that but I know it when I see it.

It must be superbly functional.

Its use must be second nature.

It must have magic. Yes, that sense of fitness for purpose you get when you pick it up, use it.

It must be made well enough to survive the ravages of time and use.

It must be reliable.

For as long as I can remember, I have used a classic. No, not the Leica, that was sold a while back and yes, it was and remains a classic. The one I continue to use daily is the Bic Cristal ball pen.

A classic if there ever was one. 5D, 85mm.

I was reminded of the sheer genius of the Bic Cristal’s design (it used to be just a ‘Bic’ until newer, poorer variations came along) when my last one, above, got dangerously low on ink. The local office supply stores no longer carry it. Clerks, when asked, return the question with a vacant stare. How can this be? Here’s a device whose hexagonal barrel fits the hand just so, cannot roll off a desk, is clear so you can see the ink level, writes for ever without leaking and comes with a push on cap that, while easily lost, cannot possibly fail. The only moving part is the tungsten carbide ball tip. Anyway, I got on the web and tracked some down in Chicago. The order will likely last me until I’m six feet under, pushing up the daisies; meanwhile, you can bet that some accountant at Bic will make sure it’s discontinued because the profit margins don’t work.

In the internal combustion world, motorcycles have given us but three classics – the Brough Superior, the Vincent and the BMW air cooled twins.

In cars, the VW Beetle and the Porsche 911. Utility and purpose combined. The Mini was chic but a passing fad. No classic.

In camera design there are as few classics as with pens, bikes and cars. Indeed, give me just about any modern camera, or pen, and I will turn right around and either sell it or give it away. Not much out there with the sheer design genius of that Bic.

But I’m lucky to have owned a few. Heck, no, not lucky. I sought them out.

The Leica M2, obviously, preferably with a 35mm lens. An instant classic whose beauty and functionality defined the 35mm film era and while the functionality died with film, the beauty remains. Many refer to the old screw thread mount Leicas as classics but they are nothing of the sort. Poorly made compared to the M2, a truly awful viewfinder, a rangefinder almost as bad and the inane two shutter speed dials. Rube Goldberg would be proud.

The waist level Rolleiflex. About as clunky and strange a design as you could conceive of, but it worked, was near silent, delivered large sharp negatives and was lovely to behold.

The Crown Graphic. Nothing too subtle here, but it worked, made enormous originals yet folded into a small box. And you could fix it with a Swiss Army knife when it went wrong, which wasn’t too often.

And then you come to digital which, after ten years on the market has not come remotely close to producing a classic. Maybe that’s because the rates of change have been so high during that decade that no one has come up with a stable, survivable design. Maybe no one ever will? But do I ever think of my two digital cameras – the LumixLX1 and the Canon 5D – as classics? Not remotely. When they fail or get materially improved, they will be discarded just like that Bic.

But the Bic will remain a classic.

This lot should last me.

Failure rates and fraud

A trip to the dentist gives a pause for reflection

What have my teeth to do with photography?

Let me start with a recent couple of incidents which caused the needle to spike on the Pindelski BS meter.

I have my teeth cleaned every six months. I don’t know why it’s every six months. Maybe it should be a year? Two years? I floss twice daily, adhere to high standards of dental hygiene and try to preserve that most important of tools for success in America, a beautiful, toothy smile. I live with the six month frequency as it seems to me the related check-up will disclose any problems in a timely manner. The cleaning, on the other hand, seems like a waste of time and money, even if it makes me feel holier than thou.

On a related topic, I take my dog to the vet annually for his shots and they assure me he is in great shape. Like a cold nose in the leg every morning didn’t already tell me that.

Now both these ‘professionals’ tried to rip me off last week. The dentist decided I needed to come in every four months. The vet said the dog needed biannual check-ups. When asked why, neither could provide a reasoned, objective, statistical argument supporting their views. Rather, I got the usual BS about “We feel that….” and “In our opinion….”. Notice how fraudsters and monarchs (same thing, really) default to the first person plural when they mean ‘I’. A simple, if naive, attempt at the power of agency. If it’s ‘we’ then more than one person must be in on the decision, right? And who are you, Mr. Layman, to question us professionals? Further, whenever I hear the words ‘believe’, or ‘think’, or ‘in my opinion’ my default conclusion, absent evidence to the contrary, is that the speaker is either lying or ignorant.

This technique is most commonly used, of course, by car mechanics, the medical profession and every scumbag salesman in insurance. Fear sells. It’s why some believe in God absent no credible scientific evidence to support their delusion. It’s the ultimate fear sell. “Buy insurance (make a donation) now at the Temple/Church/Mosque because one day you will need it”. Each is levering the consumer’s ignorance to tack on gratuitous bills. “Trust me, your engine will last longer on synthetic oil” (even if it means I can charge you four times as much). Zero objective statistical evidence on that one, by the way, unless you believe the stuff the oil companies put out. “You need an annual check up” (even if I disclaim all liability for missing the golf ball sized cancer on your head). Statisticians are wise to these games, of course, and the smarter ones are publishing refutations of these frauds by the medical profession (whom you thought you could trust) and the car mechanic (whom you know you cannot trust).

The bottom line when it comes to any sort of insurance is, in the words of a great US President, “Trust but verify”.

So if the current weakening US economy is the true source of these fraudulent attempts at revenue enhancement (dentists, vets, doctors and car mechanics have sub-prime loans too), some consideration of failure curves is in order. Which is where the photographic bit comes in.

Those who are in the machine sales racket will tell you that preventive maintenance is de rigeur. But think a moment about failure curves and you will see that machines fail most often when very new and very old. One of the greatest frauds in American retail sales practice is the ‘Extended Warranty’. It’s offered on every car, computer, camera, gadget, you name it, on sale in the retail world. Doctors, of course, offer no such warranty on their work and neither do dentists. There’s too much money to be lost. But the retail vendor knows the consumer is, for the most part, a blithering idiot. He knows if that new camera is to fail it will do so right away or thousands and thousands of pictures later. Any failure in the first year (the highest risk one) is covered, free, by the manufacturer’s warranty. The late one is irrelevant as the extended warranty will have expired. Meanwhile the sucker who has just paid the extended warranty premium has contributed a like amount of pre-tax net income to the seller. Sweet!

Think it’s trivial? Let’s check the B&H website. These estimable, honest folks are not above capitalizing on victims of American public schooling (mathematics is not on the curriculum). Can’t really say I blame them – it’s a for-profit business, after all. Too bad I cannot buy their stock.

Here’s the warranty they offer on the $2,200 Canon 5D body:

Here it is on the $1,059 Canon 24-105mm L zoom, a natural partner for this body:

Now given that these are statistically computed premiums which assure the seller maximum profit, we can glean two things from the amount. The 5D is more likely to fail (the premium is 5.9% of the selling price) than the lens (3.8%). OK, so how likely is that failure?

If I was in this protection racket, I would expect to clear a 75% margin. For every $100 dollars of revenue a net profit of no less than $75. Now when that 5D blows, it’s going to be something big – the mirror fails, the motor burns out, the meter goes kaput. A $1,000 repair, but $750 to you, Mr. Retailer. So every 5D failing because of manufacturing error (use, of course, is not covered) costs the writer of the insurance policy $750. So if I want a 75% margin, the failure rate of Canon’s 5D can be seen from this Excel spreadsheet – I have used the Goal Seek function and show the input box for the variables:

Stated differently, for the policy writer to make his 75% annual margin, he can sustain no more than one claim for every 69 cameras sold.

Or, looked at from the perspective of the user, there is a 1 in 69 chance of the camera failing in the three year extended warranty period. And you are going to pay $129.95 to protect a 1 in 69 chance of a $1,000 cost?. Let me put this politely. If you answered ‘Yes’ I am going into the warranty writing racket.

You want the numbers for that fabulous Canon 24-105mm L zoom? Assuming a $375 repair cost to the insurer, the result is 1 in 112. I repeat. 1 in 112.

When did you last bet on a 1 in 69 or 1 in 112 long shot? Because that’s what you are doing if you buy an extended warranty on your photographic gear.

So next time you are encouraged to have preventive maintenance on your car, body, teeth or camera, or someone tries to sell you an extended warranty, do the math. The rational amongst you will keep the money every time. The others need to beat a path to Pindelski Warranties Inc., cash in hand. And the smart ones will, of course, run the camera until it drops because that’s the lowest cost statistical probability.

Is there ever a set of circumstances under which a warranty makes statistical sense for your 5D? Check this database of shutter lives and you will see that the average life to failure of the Canon 5D’s shutter is some 217,000 actuations. Over 4 years (the extended and basic warranty periods in aggregate) that translates to 1,043 snaps a week. So, if you are a pro banging away at a higher rate than that, consider the warranty. But check the fine print. Chances are that professional use is not covered ….

Black Swans and photography

Expect the unexpected

Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s superb book on probablility theory (don’t glaze; stick with me. Anyone can grasp the humanities. Math and science are far harder, which is why they pay better) is titled The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

Simply stated, Taleb casts uncertainty in the light of the Black Swan. When the world believed all swans were white the first black one was a major shock to the system, the seemingly impossible had happened. Historians rushed to rewrite history and, of course, each one saw the black swan coming.

Each of us has had a major black swan event. Probably many. Take my parents. Until August 31, 1939 their predecessors had climbed the social ladder (probably lucking out on the right Black Swan events) and had nicely reached the status of minor nobility. That took some seven or eight centuries and lands and possessions were among the results. Then, come September 1, suddenly Hans and his SS legions are at the door demanding the keys to the wine cellar after shooting the dogs. No one saw it coming. Financial futures in the markets did not see it. So don’t rewrite history. Churchill may have guessed right (no one listened anyway) but for my parents this was a major Black Swan day. They had succeeded to wealth created over centuries then, BANG!, it was gone in a day. Well, at least they were lucky not to be named Rosenblum, or I wouldn’t be writing this.

The classic Black Swan event economists teach (at least the intellectually honest ones) is the case of the turkey and how history leaves the bird clueless about the future. For a couple of years he gets 3 square meals a day, enjoys Mozart (if he is a California Diestel turkey!) and, why, even on the Tuesday of Thanksgiving week he is as happy as a turkey can be. Then whack, it’s Wednesday and the turkey meets his Black Swan. Exactly the same technique was used by the Germans, of course, in the death camps in my parents’ Poland – “It’s time for a shower now. This way please”. Your victims will line up for execution as long at the previous lot didn’t live to tell about it.

In photography there have been many unpredictable Black Swan events and I have had my share. First was my discovery of the Leica as a teenager. It was a serious Black Swan and changed the way I saw things and how I photographed. I didn’t see it coming.

Later, affordable color was another BS, if you permit the abbreviation. Monochrome quickly ceased to interest me – a dimension was missing and I couldn’t unlearn it any more than I had predicted its effect on my work. I didn’t see it coming.

Next the computer did a BS on the darkroom. When PCs first came along in the early 1980s I was working on Wall Street and our first IBM two floppy PC sat there forlornly for months. Someone would switch it on once in a while and ROM Basic, written by none other than Bill Gates, popped up on the green screen. We wrote a few programs but gave up for the sheer complexity of the thing. Suddenly, one day a box marked Lotus 123 arrived and with it we had a BS event. Within a year every employee had a PC on his desk and another at home. I didn’t see it coming.

Then there was the inkjet printer. Big prints everywhere. No way to predict that. I didn’t see it coming.

Then the Internet. No one saw that BS coming.

And, most recently, digital imaging. That did to film what the German invaders did to my parents. It took a bit longer, but it was the latest photographic BS. And, yes, I didn’t see it coming. Amusingly, sometimes those closest to the Swan don’t see it. They are too invested in, and too blinded by, what they know. Kodak helped develop digital imaging, killed their mainstay and failed to capitalize on their own invention. Their BS whacked them.

And while Taleb’s book is mostly focused on the financial world (where Black Swan events happen about every year – can you say Long Term Capital Management in 1998 or Nasdaq in 2000 or the credit crunch last quarter?) I recommend it to photographers everywhere. Expect the unexpected from this fine book, because you will not see it coming.