Blah.

I put my predictions on the line yesterday and blew it in two major respects – the price (I reckoned on $1,000) and the lack of Blutetooth (iPad has it).

Having watched today’s presentation and read the tech specs of Apple’s new touch screen tablet computer, here are my first reactions:

The Good:
• Great entry price at $499+tax
• 802.11n high speed wifi
• I make the full diagonal to be 12.13″ so the 9.7″ claimed for the display area is likely true – that’s a good size
• IPS screen technology will be great for accurate color photograph display if it can be profiled properly
• 1.5lb light weight – but no mention of how much the charger weighs – I assume it takes forever to charge through a low current USB cable connection
• Claimed 10 hour battery life – though I have difficulty believing that
• Integrated with iTunes store for books, magazines, movies, music
• If you have an iPhone/Touch you already know how to use it
• Lots of apps already available though most will have to be rewritten to take advantage of the full definition
• Bluetooth – let’s hope it works with existing wireless keyboards
• No need to pay twice for tunes and apps if I read that right – the iPhone version can also be loaded on the iPad at no extra cost
• Nice looking iBook application
• iWork and iLife upgraded for touchscreen use
• Components of iWork may be separately purchased
• iPhone OS – lean, mean and hopefully fast
• Claimed ‘instant on’
• Monthly 3G telco plan available – no long term contract

  The Bad:

• Glossy screen
• No iChat camera
• Poor storage capacity (16gB in base model – that’s only 1,600 RAW files – not much for an extended trip) but maybe the USB port is not crippled and will allow use of external HDDs
• Uses AT&T not Verizon in the 3G (add $130) versions
• No indication whether you can upload Lightroom or similar apps and whether the custom CPU can handle it
• If it doesn’t run Excel and Word say goodbye to any corporate sales. Like it or not, these are the standard
• No touch screen feedback when keys are activated
• No indication whether the telco chip will support Verizon technology
• No SDHC/SDXC card slot – bad oversight – more things to forget for your next trip
• 4:3 screen not 16:9 – who makes movies on 4:3 any more?

  The Ugly:

• Dumb as a brick name – “Honey, where’s the iPod?” said with an American accent reminds me of this
• Ugly broad black bezel
• Lower margin in an attempt to grab netbook market share – bad for the stock?
• Probably fragile – a big expanse of bendable glass and lots of fingerprints to contend with on that glossy screen, not to mention your own reflection when in use
• No support for Adobe Flash – whether you like it or not, that’s the default application for much video on the web

I would like to have seen more emphasis in today’s weak, self congratulatory presentation on other uses, like universal remote functionality, ability to host a business projection, photography, etc.

However, at that price, if the virtual keyboard works reasonably well and if the dockable external keyboard is well priced, this will be a significant challenger to low margin netbooks made by the competition unless the system is so locked that you cannot use applications of choice. Who in their right mind, for example, prefers iWork Numbers to Microsoft Excel for serious number crunching or Pages to Word for heavy duty word processing? My sense is that the old “never buy v1.0 of anything” rule applies strongly here and that my $400 netbook with its 500gB HDD, 802.11n and an SDHC reader, not to mention a real keyboard, just got a new lease on life. Even if it weighs one pound more – worth it for the matte screen alone.

Disclosure: No AAPL positions.

Hype day is tomorrow.

Because I am both a user and an investor, Apple products interest me. Tomorrow, Steve Jobs will ladle additional hype on what is already the most over-hyped product since the iPhone.

I believe that the iSlate tablet will be a technological tour de force …. and a near-term commercial failure.

iSlate – artist’s impression

But first, let me pitch in my 3 cents’ worth (50% more valuable than the average out there, but still largely worthless) and guess at the tech specs. Much of this is pretty obvious based on leaks from suppliers. Either way, you can check me against tomorrow’s hyperama:

Hardware: 

• 10.1″ glossy, diagonal touchscreen
• ARM 1gHz low power consumption CPU
• 6 hr (10 hr in JobsSpeak) flat, non-user changeable battery
• 2.5mm standard headphone jack
• Crappy built-in speakers (“Greatest sound since Carnegie Hall” – SJ)
• Virtual keyboard with vibration touch feedback
• 64gB SSD (“Huge” – SJ)
• SDXC slot card reader
• iPhone socket, no USB sockets, to preserve connectivity premium
• Aluminum rear case
• Appearance like a large iPhone (“A design revolution” – SJ)
• Fragile glass screen which will break as soon as you look at it (“Titanium tough” – SJ)
• Broadcomm multi-carrier processor (VZ/TMO/T) for 3G
• 802/11n (let’s hope) wifi
• No Bluetooth
• Universal remote capability
• Under 2 lbs with charger (“Weightless” – SJ)

  Software:

• iPhone OS, not OS X
• iWork and iLife adapted to touch technology
• iTunes integrated to include books, magazines, enhanced games and newspapers
• Lightroom Touch (just kidding – it will take sleepy Adobe 2 years)

After the hype dies down, however, I believe the device will be a near-term commercial failure. There are a couple of reasons. First, I believe Apple will not include Bluetooth, making it impossible to use an external keyboard. To do otherwise would be to cannibalize their laptop offerings. So long term typing will be impossible on a flat, virtual keyboard, just like on the iPhone.

But the biggest cause of failure will be the price. Apple enjoys fabulously high profit margins on its costly hardware and cannot afford to sacrifice those or the stock, already priced for perfection, falls out of bed. So add up the component prices and you get $999 at a 35-40% margin. Absent the rabid fans, who in his right mind, in an economy headed for the toilet (or going deeper into the toilet, if you prefer) is going to blow a big one on a device like this when he already has an iPhone/Touch and a MacBook? Sure, give me Bluetooth and this is the perfect replacement for my netbook. But I simply don’t Bluetooth happening for reasons explained above.

Fine, so there will be two versions, like with the iPhone/Touch. The $999 wifi only one and a $599 one with 3G and a carrier subsidy. Now that carrier will charge the user $50-60 monthly for the 3G connection, so now your $600 toy has suddenly cost you over $2000. And you want yet another monthly bill in our post-Armageddon economy?

So my guess is that the technology in the device will be wonderful and, as the introduction will include promises that books etc. will be available through iTunes (content is King), near term hype will push Apple’s stock along and the fans will line up come the July availability date. But I fail to see how Apple will sell many of these in this economy at $999.

In a year or two the price will drop significantly, content will have grown, the fragile screen and bad code and overheating issues and carrier bottlenecks will have been addressed and Bluetooth will be added. Then it will start making serious money and the laptop computer as we know it will become a tablet device.

Disclosure: Long AAPL call options.