All posts by Thomas Pindelski

About Thomas Pindelski

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iSlate predictions

iPad

Hype day is tomorrow.

Because I am both a user and an investor, Apple products interest me. Tomorrow, Steve Jobs will ladle additional hype on what is already the most over-hyped product since the iPhone.

I believe that the iSlate tablet will be a technological tour de force …. and a near-term commercial failure.

iSlate – artist’s impression

But first, let me pitch in my 3 cents’ worth (50% more valuable than the average out there, but still largely worthless) and guess at the tech specs. Much of this is pretty obvious based on leaks from suppliers. Either way, you can check me against tomorrow’s hyperama:

    Hardware: 

  • 10.1″ glossy, diagonal touchscreen
  • ARM 1gHz low power consumption CPU
  • 6 hr (10 hr in JobsSpeak) flat, non-user changeable battery
  • 2.5mm standard headphone jack
  • Crappy built-in speakers (“Greatest sound since Carnegie Hall” – SJ)
  • Virtual keyboard with vibration touch feedback
  • 64gB SSD (“Huge” – SJ)
  • SDXC slot card reader
  • iPhone socket, no USB sockets, to preserve connectivity premium
  • Aluminum rear case
  • Appearance like a large iPhone (“A design revolution” – SJ)
  • Fragile glass screen which will break as soon as you look at it (“Titanium tough” – SJ)
  • Broadcomm multi-carrier processor (VZ/TMO/T) for 3G
  • 802/11n (let’s hope) wifi
  • No Bluetooth
  • Universal remote capability
  • Under 2 lbs with charger (“Weightless” – SJ)

    Software:

  • iPhone OS, not OS X
  • iWork and iLife adapted to touch technology
  • iTunes integrated to include books, magazines, enhanced games and newspapers
  • Lightroom Touch (just kidding – it will take sleepy Adobe 2 years)

After the hype dies down, however, I believe the device will be a near-term commercial failure. There are a couple of reasons. First, I believe Apple will not include Bluetooth, making it impossible to use an external keyboard. To do otherwise would be to cannibalize their laptop offerings. So long term typing will be impossible on a flat, virtual keyboard, just like on the iPhone.

But the biggest cause of failure will be the price. Apple enjoys fabulously high profit margins on its costly hardware and cannot afford to sacrifice those or the stock, already priced for perfection, falls out of bed. So add up the component prices and you get $999 at a 35-40% margin. Absent the rabid fans, who in his right mind, in an economy headed for the toilet (or going deeper into the toilet, if you prefer) is going to blow a big one on a device like this when he already has an iPhone/Touch and a MacBook? Sure, give me Bluetooth and this is the perfect replacement for my netbook. But I simply don’t Bluetooth happening for reasons explained above.

Fine, so there will be two versions, like with the iPhone/Touch. The $999 wifi only one and a $599 one with 3G and a carrier subsidy. Now that carrier will charge the user $50-60 monthly for the 3G connection, so now your $600 toy has suddenly cost you over $2000. And you want yet another monthly bill in our post-Armageddon economy?

So my guess is that the technology in the device will be wonderful and, as the introduction will include promises that books etc. will be available through iTunes (content is King), near term hype will push Apple’s stock along and the fans will line up come the July availability date. But I fail to see how Apple will sell many of these in this economy at $999.

In a year or two the price will drop significantly, content will have grown, the fragile screen and bad code and overheating issues and carrier bottlenecks will have been addressed and Bluetooth will be added. Then it will start making serious money and the laptop computer as we know it will become a tablet device.

Disclosure: Long AAPL call options.

A Mighty Mouse replacement

Hardware

Microsoft? Are you crazy?

I’m on my third Apple Mighty Mouse – the one with the neat little scroll wheel. The first was wired and the last two have been wireless. Each failed for the same reason. The small scroll wheel gets clogged with grease and debris and eventually ceases to function properly. Apple’s recommended cleaning method is to place the mouse upside down on a clean sheet of paper, bear down hard and move it around. Certainly that works a few times and dirt comes out but after a while the fix fails, even if you soak the paper with isopropyl alcohol.

I tried the new Magic Mouse and was unimpressed. Transverse finger swipes are anything but natural for horizontal scrolling and the lack of the Mighty Mouse’s side buttons takes away the biggest feature of the Mighty Mouse for me – the ability to jump to the desktop, which is immensely useful for drag and drop of pictures into emails and the like.

After a bit of research I narrowed my choice down to a couple of competing products which were reputed to work well with OS X on the Mac. I finally decided on the …. wait for it …. Microsoft 6000. Yes, a product from the Beast of Redmond, at half the price of the one from Cupertino.

The 6000 comes with a DVD disc of software and, unsurprisingly, installation failed on my Mac Pro. Nothing changes.

However, I went to System Preferences->Mouse and found the Apple utility works fine (OS 10.6.2 – Snow Leopard) and that the buttons were set identically to those for my Mighty Mouse. I turned down the pointer speed which was crazy fast and everything was sweetness and light.

The (not so) Mighty Mouse and the Microsoft 6000 for comparison.

A couple of observations. The 6000 uses 2.4gHz Radio Frequency to transmit the signal, not Bluetooth, requiring the (included) receiver (the size of a dime) be plugged in to a USB port on your computer. So if you need to use it on another computer, you will need to transplant the receiver first. Scrolling is not quite as smooth as on the Mighty Mouse but close enough. Pointer movement is fine – I do not use pointer acceleration and cannot comment on it, preferring a ‘hard coupled’ feel. Fit and finish is excellent and Microsoft claims a 10 month life for the (included – alkaline, not lithium) single AA battery. We will see. While there’s an on-off switch, I’m leaving mine ‘on’ permanently and will see how long the battery lasts. Finally, if you do switch the 6000 off, the cursor appears immediately when the mouse is switched back on, unlike the multi-second delay with Bluetooth.

The ergonomics are fine. This is not a big mouse. I have an average sized palm and long fingers and the mouse fits well. Users with really large hands may find it too small. Those with smaller hands will probably feel right at home. The feel is slightly superior to that of the Mighty Mouse, the position of the side click buttons slightly worse – they are too high. The scroll wheel is smooth, unlike on Microsoft’s cheaper mice and also tilts from side to side for (dead slow) sideways scrolling. Finally, a first for Microsoft – their product does what they advertise. The 6000 scrolls smoothly on every surface I tried – glass, vinyl, rough carpet. Why, it even works on a mouse pad. The physical shape is symmetrical so ‘lefties’ should have no issues.

Some reviews have stated that the receiver overheats and blows but, so far, mine is running at room temperature.

Given my simply awful experience over many years with Apple’s unreliable hardware, I can’t help thinking the computing world would be a better place if Apple stuck to making software and Microsoft only made hardware.

That’s an awful lot of words about something as simple as a mouse but when they are focused on one of the primary interfaces with your photographs in Lightroom or Photoshop, it may make sense to get into so much detail, detail in which the devil resides. In the spirit of fairness let me conclude with words I thought I would only use when that same devil’s residence froze over: “Well done, Microsoft”.

Battery life update – March 30, 2010:

The red tell tale light started flashing through the top of the mouse today meaning I got some 9 weeks of use from the single alkaline battery – I use the mouse some 3-4 hours a day and never switch it off. I replaced it with one AA Lithium – it takes only one – and expect to get some 30+ weeks from it. When you install the new battery a green light shines through the top of the mouse for a few seconds telling you all is well. I remain delighted with the device.

I also managed to install the Microsoft software from their site and side scrolling now works properly; the software shipped with the mouse did not work.

Second battery update – July 1, 2010:

The second Lithium AA battery just died – so 12 weeks of hard use from that one. Impressive, and it only takes one battery. I remain very pleased with the performance of this mouse at a fraction of the cost of Apple’s jewelry alternative.

Better vertical scrolling – July 2, 2010:

The Microsoft Intellimouse mouse software is not very good at providing smooth vertical scrolling. To improve this, uninstall Intellimouse software (Applications->Utilities) and install SteerMouse in its place. All button functions are retained and remain programmable, and vertical scrolling is smoother. You can optionally switch on scrolling acceleration if you like.

Even better vertical scrolling – july 9, 2010:

Well, it turns out the SteerMouse people want $30 for their software which is too much. Shopping around I came across SmartScroll whose version 3.7 works with OS Snow Leopard 10.6.4 and improves significantly on Steer Mouse. Vertical scrolling is now even smoother, lateral scrolling is preserved and it comes with a free trial period, $19 if you buy. Further, the occasional erratic behavior of the mouse cursor I have experienced with SteerMouse is gone. A superior product.

Get it in white: The white version makes for a nice match with the Kensington Mac wired keyboard I use (a far superior feel to the ‘chicklet’ keys used on Apple keyboard and it doesn’t fail. Half the price, obviously, need I add?) right down to the matching chrome strips on both. Further, unlike the glossy black version which is a fingerprint magnet, the white one is matte and has no such issues.

Microsoft wireless mouse in white – a superior product

Get closer ….

Photographers

Oh! dear.

Robert Capa famously remarked that if your pictures are not good enough, you are not close enough.

Maybe this lady photographer needs to get in a bit closer. Certainly, her man must have heard my thoughts – just mouse over the image for a bit of fun (requires Safari or Chrome browser to render).


Honey, I got it. G1, kit lens.

Snapped opposite the old Transamerica Building on Columbus Avenue in San Francisco.

Brands and investments

Hardware, Micro Four-Thirds

I don’t get it.

Every time some new hardware format appears you hear the usual carping along the lines of “Why do we need another lens mount”, “Why do we need another manufacturer”, “Why do we need another storage format” and so on. This is invariably followed up with “I have too big an investment in Brand X” and “Brand Y does not know how to make cameras”.

This thinking has me puzzled. My daily snapper currently comes from a company better known for washing machines and toasters, Panasonic. It has a unique lens mount and a unique format in the G1. Yes, I can adapt just about every lens known to man to fit but it makes no sense to do so as the camera then loses many of the automated features which make it so appealing.

When I bought it I didn’t think making toasters and washing machines was a problem. In fact, given the maker’s reputation, I saw it as a positive. And as for that ‘investment’ thinking, please. A camera is a consumer (not very) durable and depreciates daily. There is no investment aspect to it unless you are a collector of antiques, which are useless for photography. It’s simply a tool which loses value over time.

Given that I will likely dump the G1 for something better soon, I couldn’t be better pleased with my return on ‘investment’ which will look something like this:

Pictures taken: 10,000
Pictures retained: 2,000
Loss on resale of body: $250

Thus, my ‘cost per keeper’ is some 12 cents or so.

If you ask me, at the price of a couple of really nice dinners that’s the bargain of the decade, but it sure as heck is not an investment.

Dummy. (Depreciated) G1, kit lens in Little Italy, San Francisco.